CHINA- SHANGHAI: The Shanghai Energy Option and Health Impact Assessment, funded by USEPA, were carried out by Shanghai Academy of Environmental Academy (SAES) and Shanghai Medical University (SMU) from early 1999 to August 2000. Current energy supply and consumption, SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions, air pollution levels, and health effects were analyzed. Bottom up energy demand by sector from 2000 to 2020 were projected, based on economic growth and energy demand elasticity. The Markal model (a professional energy optimization model, and energy technology system analysis program) was used in this project for energy technology selection, and local air pollution emission and CO2 emission analysis upon the requirements of energy and environment policies which are listed in China’s Agenda 21 – Shanghai’s Plan of Action (Shanghai, June 1999). Shanghai Environmental GIS linked with air pollution dispersion models were adopted in air pollution exposure level forecasting. The results show that energy and environment policies will play important roles in air pollutant emission reductions, local air quality improvement, and policies will also have co-benefits for health and CO2 emission reductions in Shanghai, China.
BRAZIL: The work in Brazil to develop integrated climate change and air pollution strategies for São Paulo is in the early stages of development. This chapter provides a brief summary of the methodology for this ICAP work in Brazil, which is led by the São Paulo State Environmental Sanitary Company and includes participation of the University of São Paulo and the Institute for Applied Economic Research. A considerable amount of work has already been conducted in São Paulo and in Brazil that directly relates to each of the key components of the ICAP approach. The ICAP project seeks to build upon these past studies by improving the understanding of the benefits of integrated climate change and air pollution strategies and supporting the development and refinement of such integrated environmental strategies. This project is building linkages in Brazil between the multiple technical disciplines required to conduct integrated air pollution, greenhouse gas, and health effects policy analysis and engaging policy makers in design of the studies and evaluation of the results.
CHILE: The ICAP project was initiated in March 1999 and is lead by the National Environmental Commission (CONAMA) and P. Catholic University of Chile. The main goal of the project is to assist government officials and stakeholders to understand the air pollution benefits of energy technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to build capacity to conduct co-benefits analysis of GHG mitigation measures on an ongoing basis. Ancillary benefits of GHG mitigation were assessed by comparing a Business As Usual (BAU) case to the current GHG abatement scenario being considered by CONAMA, a Mitigation scenario (CP) consisting of no regrets measures that only target GHG abatement. A more in-depth, secondary analysis assessed the air pollution and GHG mitigation effectiveness of specific mitigation measures. The estimation of the public health benefits of both specific mitigation measures and the mitigation scenario was conducted based on the ‘damage function approach’, which models quantitatively each step in the causal chain of physical impacts and their economic valuation. The emphasis of the analysis is concentrated on the Metropolitan Region of Santiago and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Air quality and pollutant exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and coarse fractions was modeled using two methods, an Eulerian Box model approach and a source apportionment approach. Health effects studied included a range of mortality and morbidity endpoints; concentration response functions were derived from relationships in both Chile and the USA. Domestic and international willingness-to-pay functions are used to develop estimates for the monetary value of the anticipated health effects. Results are obtained for Santiago and extrapolated to the national level. Estimates of the total potential for avoided health effects between 2000 and 2020 include thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of hospital and emergency room visits, and millions of disability days. Corresponding estimates of the potential benefit value of these avoided health effects in 2020 are between US$0.24 - 1.9 billion/yr and US$60-480/ton C-eq reduced. The analysis was presented to policymakers in Chile who noted its usefulness in allowing consideration of complex factors in coordinating different goals and for potentially directing international resources toward project involving harmonized policies and measures such as those that may be considered under the Clean Development Mechanism.
KOREA: The Korea ICAP work applies a bottom-up impact analysis approach to evaluate the ancillary benefits resulting from greenhouse gas mitigation polices and measures. This work initially has focused on the impact of these greenhouse gas mitigation measures on PM10 levels in the Seoul Metropolitan area and the corresponding impact on premature mortality and morbidity of asthma and respiratory diseases in 1995 through 2020. The greenhouse gas scenarios considered in this preliminary analysis focus primarily on energy efficiency and use of compressed natural gas for vehicles. More aggressive greenhouse gas reduction scenarios that include fuel substitution outside of the transportation sector would likely generate greater air pollution health benefits. The preliminary results reveal that modest greenhouse gas reduction scenarios (5-15% reductions in 2020) can result in significant air pollution health benefits through reductions in PM10 concentrations. For instance, these greenhouse gas reduction measures for Korea’s energy sector could avoid 40 to 120 premature deaths/yr. and 2800 to 8300 cases/yr. of asthma and other respiratory diseases in the Seoul Metropolitan Area in 2020. The cumulative value of these avoided health effects is estimated to range from 10 to 125 million US$/yr (in 1999 dollars with annual discounting rate 0.75%). This is equivalent to a benefit of $10 to $42 per ton of carbon emissions reduced in 2020 for the climate change scenarios.
ARGENTINA: The co-control benefits analysis project is at its beginning stage in Argentina. In this preliminary report the methodological aspects of the project are described. The key element of the chosen approach is the emissions inventories estimation from GHG mitigation measures under analysis that could be implemented before 2012. The Air Ware dispersion model will be used to obtain the concentration of PM, CO, NOx, and SO2 in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. Health effects analysis and avoided health costs estimation procedures will be used to value the local health co-benefits of adopting climate change mitigation policies in Argentina.
MEXICO: This project to develop an integrated air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation plan for the Mexico City Region will begin in early 2001. It will build on a past studies on the health effects of local air pollutants and on the cost-effectiveness of energy sector measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One of the main goals of this project is to develop harmonized air pollution and climate change mitigation measures that can be included in the new ten-year Mexico City Metropolitan Area air quality program.
 Developing Countries Case Studies November 2000
 Developing Countries Case Studies November 2000